In the tropics, following the demise of Richard, we have three systems in the central and east Atlantic. Two are on the verge of becoming tropical or subtropical cyclones as we speak! They are located between Bermuda and the Cape Verde Islands, and will pose little if any threat to land. The third system is associated with an exceedingly late-season, low-latitude tropical wave, nearing the southern Lesser Antilles. Should the system develop it could potentially impact parts of the Caribbean.

Other weak disturbances populate the Atlantic, though for the most part the rest of the basin is very quiet. October storms tend to occur in the Caribbean Sea or the western Atlantic near the Lesser Antilles, though some have developed from extratropical systems further to the north. The area just off the African coast rarely sees development this time of the year, though tropical waves can and do reach the Caribbean, where they could develop.

Hurricane Wilma became the most intense storm known to have occurred in the Atlantic Basin on October 19th, 2005, with a pressure measured at 882mb and sustained winds of 185mph. Five years ago today, Wilma was nearing the Yucatan Peninsula as a weaker – but still devastating – Category Four storm. Wilma remains Mexico’s costliest natural disaster; despite barely grazing the northeast corner of the Yucatan Peninsula, the eyewall passed directly over Cozumel and Cancun, and remained stalled there for nearly two days!

I am deeply disappointed in myself for missing the incredible strengthening of Typhoon Megi in the West Pacific a few days ago. While I don’t usually pay as much attention to that basin as I do the Atlantic and East Pacific, I still only learned of the storm’s peak as a violent supertyphoon, with winds sustained at a scarcely believable 190mph and a pressure down to 885mb (estimated from satellite). Megi is the strongest tropical cyclone recorded worldwide since Atlantic Hurricane Wilma in 2005 (pending the controversy surrounding the intensity of Cyclone Monica in 2006), and ties the worldwide record for highest sustained winds. Megi was still a Category Five-equivalent supertyphoon at landfall in the Philippines, though that country is quite prepared for the frequent typhoon landfalls it receives.

Category Five-type landfalls are rare, and only a handful are known outside the West Pacific. Australia occasionally experiences cyclone landfalls near that intensity, with several in recent years, but in the Atlantic such hits are not common. The US has not experienced such a landfall since Hurricane Andrew in 1992, and the last such landfalls in the entire basin occurred in 2007, when both Dean and Felix came ashore with frightening intensity.

In terms of pressure, however, the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 is the most intense landfalling storm on record in the Atlantic. This compact hurricane devastated the Florida Keys, killing over 400 people, including numerous WW1 veterans. The barometer fell to an incredible 892mb as the storm’s eye passed over, perhaps the lowest pressure for a landfalling tropical cyclone  anywhere on Earth. Even more amazing, another resident noted his barometer bottoming out at 880mb… but, in fright, and in disbelief of the veracity of his barometer, tossed his instrument into the water, forever losing any confirmation of this reading. If authenticated, the Labor Day storm would have been the most intense storm recorded in the Atlantic, especially since it is believed to have been stronger before passing the Keys, but now we will never know unless we somehow discover confirmation of such a reading. The official landfall sustained winds were 160mph as per HURDAT, but based on the remarkable level of  damage and phenomena reported in the storm (sand grains blown together so fast that they became electrically charged; devastating storm surge despite the tiny size of the system) , winds were certainly much higher. Gusts could have approached 250mph. The Labor Day Hurricane will forever remain one of America’s most devastating hurricane disasters.

One feature of note is a cluster of showers and thunderstorms associated with a low-pressure area in the southwestern Caribbean. Conditions appear favourable for development, and indeed the low looks like it may be becoming a tropical cyclone right now, but it only has a short period of time before landfall in Central America or Belize. It could become a tropical depression shortly before coming ashore.

A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is fighting unfavourable conditions, but could develop once it reaches less hostile conditions to its west. Development in this region in late October is rare, though, so climatology is working against its development.

The remnants of Otto are, remarkably, still hanging tough west of Portugal. Convection has fluctuated with the remnant low, but no redevelopment is expected as the low finally dissipates in the coming days.

The East Pacific continues its record-shattering quiet streak, with no tropical cyclones active, but the West Pacific is shifting into gear, with a strong typhoon moving over the Philippines in the last few days.

I reckon I will post a season summary sometime in December about the incredible activity in September of this year, but for now we shall settle for a discussion on Tropical Storm Paula.

Yes, we are already at the ‘P’ name, making 2010 one of the most active seasons ever recorded. 2008 was the last year that we reached the ‘P’ name on the list, and that storm – Paloma – developed on 5 November. Only four other seasons – 1995, 2003, 2005, and 2008 – have reached the ‘P’ storm since modern naming began. If we get a couple more storms, we will have witnessed one of the five most active seasons on record, and hurricane season still has a month and a half to go. Also, for the record, the name Paula has never been used before in the Atlantic basin – this name list has only gotten as far as ‘Otto’, in 2004 and this year. Thus, so far, we have had five names never used before in the Atlantic: Colin, Fiona, Igor, Julia, and now Paula. The first four are replacement names for Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne in 2004.

On to specifics about our new tropical storm. Truthfully, I am a bit frustrated at the NHC regarding this system; I am not a meteorologist by any means, but this system had a well-defined circulation at at least the mid level, deep central convection, and good outflow yesterday (in fact looking a lot more healthy than Bonnie, Colin, or Gaston ever did) . It finally took a reconnaissance plane to confirm that the system was a tropical storm, already at 50kts. I am almost certain that they will note that Paula formed at least a day earlier than operationally classified, upon post-season analysis. But I digress – Paula is indeed a tropical cyclone now, and will soon become a hurricane. The storm will probably intensify fairly quickly and track NW towards Cancun and Cozumel before slowing and making a sharp right turn. Then it will drift eastward toward Cuba as a weaker system. As for intensity, Paula could be a hurricane by sunrise, and has a small window of opportunity to become a major hurricane before shear increases. Hurricane warnings are up for parts of the Yucatan Peninsula tonight, and hurricane conditions are possible by late tomorrow or early Wednesday. The primary threat, though the system is small, will be flooding rains and high seas.

Other than Paula, the Atlantic is relatively quiet. The extratropical remnants of Otto are accelerating towards the Arctic, and a few weak disturbances are crawling across the Atlantic. Conditions basinwide are fairly hostile for tropical development right now, but waters are very warm, and if a disturbance manages to find a break in the shear, fairly rapid development is possible. But nothing is really likely to develop in the next 48 hours.

The East Pacific has been incredibly quiet after a burst of early season activity. In fact, this has been one of the quietest years on record disregarding the June and early July activity. This exceptionally quiet trend is likely to continue for the next bit, though late October occasionally brings a few storms for the basin.

The first, and most noticeable, is located right off the southwest coast of Florida, between the Keys and Tampa. It’s a nontropical low that has been sitting over Florida for a week now; however, it is now developing a surface low and deep thunderstorm activity around its centre. Given favourable atmospheric conditions around it, this system has about a 60% chance of developing into a tropical or subtropical depression in the next 24-48 hours; it may in fact become a tropical depression later today. It is forecasted to track NNW between a pair of weakening ridges and come inland in central Louisiana, bringing widespread rains to the central Gulf states. If this does indeed happen, it is worth closely monitoring the situation as it develops. This storm will be named “Danielle” if it manages to develop into a tropical storm.

However, that system would be named “Earl” if another system in the east-central Atlantic develops first into Danielle. This is a tropical wave that has generated a very well-defined surface circulation well northeast of the Lesser Antilles. It has been on the verge of developing into a tropical storm for almost three days, with a 6070% chance at developing, but it has been in slightly unfavourable conditions for a while, and convection is minimal around the exposed circulation. Any boost in thunderstorm activity would likely require an upgrade to tropical storm status, but time is starting to run out for the rather oddly-located wave, and regardless of its status it is unlikely to impact land.

Tropical Storm Estelle in the East Pacific has weakened to a depression, and is expected to degenerate into a remnant low today.

Another tropical wave in the southwest Caribbean will soon come ashore with little or no further development, and a very large tropical wave not far off the coast of Africa bears very close watching.

The Eastern Pacific could see a slight upswing in activity in coming weeks as well.

But after a brief quiet period, we have another system in the east-central Atlantic tagged with a high chance for tropical development, on this first day of August. It could become a tropical depression this evening. It is still too early it to tell where it’ll go, but this is about the time of year that Cape Verde storms become more likely. We shall monitor the situation closely.

In addition, there is a tropical wave nearing Central America, but chances of development are very limited due to shear and proximity to land.

A disturbance in the East Pacific shows a few signs of development, but convection is fairly limited. It should dissipate over cooler water.  Another disturbance south of Hawaii in the Central Pacific looks impressive but is in an unfavourable environment for development.

It is still a bit early to be determining an accurate track forecast, but most computer models indicate that the system will head for southern Florida in the coming days, eventually posing a threat to the Gulf Coast. The persistent ridge over the southeast will certainly impact its eventual track, though, and there is a distinct possibility that this could be another Texas storm; if the ridge weakens, however (and it is forecast to do so) , it could move up the central Gulf Coast into Mississippi or Louisiana. This would be good news for inland areas, which have been rather dry as of late, but very bad news for those cleaning up the Gulf oil spill. Furthermore, the exceptionally warm waters and favourable upper-air environment could allow for rapid intensification, with dire consequences for locations along the coast. But this is all if this wave manages to develop. We shall keep track of the system in the coming days.

Elsewhere across the basin, shower and thunderstorm activity is widespread, but other than some potential very slow development in the western Caribbean, no imminent tropical cyclone formation is expected.

In the East Pacific, things are abnormally quiet. Could this confirm that La Nina is indeed developing as forecast? We shall see!

Uhh, yeah. Anyway. The disturbance that was about to move across the Yucatan last time I updated this did manage to develop further, becoming TD2 shortly before coming ashore near the Texas/Mexico border, very close to where Alex came in a couple weeks ago. The system created heavy rain in scattered pockets across Texas, but otherwise dissipated with little fanfare. It never reached Tropical Storm intensity, so we’re still waiting on Bonnie.

Is a future Bonnie out there? Right now, the Atlantic Basin is fairly quiet, with nontropical convection scattered about, and a few tropical waves. One wave moving off the African coast looked impressive earlier today but I expect it to weaken, at least for now.

An Invest disturbance has developed in the East Pacific, S of Guatemala, but it’s not likely to impact land anytime soon, if at all.

I don’t think I have never seen four areas outlined in the TWO. To be fair though, all but one have a less than 30% chance of developing. But still, this is rather unusual for early July! It is worth noting that in 2005, Cindy and Dennis developed where the Caribbean wave and the Antilles wave are respectively, in the first few days of July. Shaping up to be an interesting season indeed!